Arizona: The Cost Of Gun Control

Well, let’s continue our series, fighting the spell checker all the way!

Arizona is the fifth entry in our 52 post series with the National cost of gun control since 1960, plus the States of Alabama, Alaska, and now Arkansas and now Arizona.

Each State has radically different incomes levels, its population has a different demographic mix of peoples, and of course different laws, imposed at different times. While Arkansas is no exception to that rule, as you will see the Wonder State3’s violent crime rates track the other 50 States,plus the District of Columbia, to an amazing degree. While factors not related to crime – the collapse of Black employment in Chicago had a profound effect on Arkansas violent crime rates, with very few exceptions those are quickly and easily explained.

Arizona likes on key human trafficking and smuggling routes from Mexico, creating conditions that should lead to an one of the United states higher sets of violent crime rates. Fortunately, the State has a relaxed attitude toward self defense which keeps the lid on the rime rates.

With that, let me note that Arizona’s reputation for violence is myth, not fact. For the most part, gunplay was between criminals or members of criminal groups, as in the notorious gunfight between the “Gamblers and the Rustlers,” known as the shootout at the OK Corral. And no, I will not cover that in this, or probably any,post here.

Restrictive gun laws came shortly after Statehood in 1912, and the rise in violent rime is a part of the rise in the national violent rime rate in 1912.

Arizona began issuing Concealed weapons results in 1994 with a salutory effect on violent rime, followed by Constitutional Carry in late 2009.

There are two key sets of number that are key to understanding just what gun control has done to Arizona, and what gun control has cost Arizona.

The key dates are 1960, before gun control was an issue, 1963 when the entertainment industry began a national gun ban campaign, 1968, when that campaign paid off with two draconian State gun laws and the Federal Gun Control Act of 1968; 1973 wh the five full year point for the Gun Control Act of 1968, and 1993, the end year for the so-called Assault Weapons Ban campaign.

The numbers and rates given here can either at this convenient spreadsheet, or in the original printed copies of the FBI Uniform Crime Report kept on file at many police headquarters. And with that it is time to look at the numbers.

Because Arizona’s population has grown from `,300,000 in 1960 to an estimated 6,900,000 in 2015,the for clarity the following are the violent crime RATE is given in crimes per 100,000 population.

In 1960 Arizona Law Enforcement Agencies reported violent crime rate of 2017.7 per 100,000.

1963 the year the entertainment industry started a gun b an campaign, the rate was 194.2..

1954, the first full year of a national gun ban campaign Arizona authorities reported a rate of 213.0 to the FBI.

1968, the fifth year of the first National gun ban campaign and 15 days of a Federal gun control law, the violent crime rate was up to 238.2,

1969, the first full year of year of Federal gun controls sa Arizona’s violent crime rate shoot up to 339.2 per 100,000 population.
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1973, the fifth full year of Federal gun controls saw Arizona’s violent crime rate rose to 479.9.

And finally, the peak year for violent crime in Arkansas was 1993, the year before Arizona began licensing Concealed Carry, when Arizona authorities reported 28,142 violent crimes to the FBI for a violent crime rate of 715.0 per 100,000 population.

With that,it is time to look at Arizona’s violent crime rate in chart form:

As you can see, Arizona’s violent crime rates began falling almost as soon as the Legislature approved Concealed Carry Weapon Permits. A topic we shall return to presently.

Now, let us go to a key question. What are the chances that some other factor is responsible for these the increase and decrease in homicide and violent crime already noted?

As the investigators saying goes, “When everything else has been eliminated, what is left must be truth.” My friends and I have painstakingly gone through every feasible suggestion an for an alternative cause, and come up dry. Now, it was not adding tetraethyl lead to gasoline, that was don as early as 1929, and was nearly universal by 1933, the year relaxed enforcement of gun laws caused the violent crime rates to fall. Other suggested causes, such as demographic shits, and even mattress types have been investigated, and discarded. What remains are the restrictive gun laws that are shared by the f50 States and the District.

But what is the probability that this pattern of increase in violent crime could be just a coincidence?

Each State’s violent crime rates consist of four parts; homicide/murder, rape,robbery, and “Aggravated Assault. the probability that any State’s four crime rates would rise and fall in almost immediately after imposition of gun restrictions is remote, on the order of 3,000 to 15,000 1,500 to 1. Multiply that by the four violent crimes tracked by the FBI, and then multiply that by 1,500 again for each time a violent crime rate rises and falls as gun laws are made more or less restrictive and the probability that there is any other reason for the observed fluctuations is indeed minute.

So far, with just three states posted, the probability that gun control is the primary factor in the ries of violent crime is grater than one trillion to one.

With that,let’s continue with the monetary cost of gun control by considering the cots the Grand Canyon State’s of gun control costs the people of Arizona, including cost of each additional homicide at %2.2 million each, as well as the cost of medical care, permanent disability, loss of income, loss of companionship, as well as he costs of destroyed, damaged or stolen goods, the additional cost of security, law enforcement, the criminal justice system, and the penal system. The total is staggering, as you can see by considering just the number of excess homicides above the 1963 base rate:

When all the costs are added, it comes to more than $10,650,000,000.

While Arizona is a relatively affluent State,no State regardless of wealth can afford such a cost. A cost foredoomed to be a useless expenditure, because no gun control in history has ever reduced crime, made anyone safer, or reduced the incidence of political assassinations; a record of failure without equal in history.

While we are less than ten percent of the way through the States, his pattern will be repeated, with minor variations, all the way to Wyoming!

It is time to say “Enough” to laws that drive violent crime rtes sky high and preempt every restrictive State and Local gun law; and impowse a reasonable find for anyone who attempts enforce preempted laws, or crate new laws to evade preemption.

Stranger

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